Dive Brief:

• Restaurant same-store sales were down 0.4% in August, the third month in a row of negative comp sales for the segment, according to Black Box Intelligence data.
• Same-store traffic slipped 3.6% in August — the second-worst month for traffic since January, the company said. 
• September is revealing a slight shift in both same-store sales and traffic, with the first three weeks of the month returning to positive comp sales. Black Box Intelligence expects the fourth quarter to be stronger than the third quarter, mirroring last year’s performance, with single-digit comp sales growth.

Dive Insight:

Same-store sales growth improved in August by two percentage points, indicating the possibility of a turnaround, BBI’s data suggests. Traffic growth also rose 1.1% month to month, the company said. However, July’s sales comps were down 2.3% and traffic was down 4.6%, giving the industry easier comparables for August. 

A COVID-19 surge, bad summer weather, unusually high heat and the Olympics likely negatively impacted July sales, according to BBI.  

“It is the momentum we are seeing in our data that supports the idea of a new upward trend for restaurants,” BBI said in its report, adding that all quick-service segments saw improvements in year-over-year comp sales in August compared to July. 

Average check growth, even with a flurry of value meal offerings during the summer, was up 3.4% during August compared to two months of growth under 3%. 

All of this data bodes well for many QSRs that had a rough second quarter. McDonald’s, for example, posted its first negative comparable sales for the U.S. since 2020. Other chains, including Jack in the Box and Starbucks, posted negative comp sales as well. 

During each of the last four months of 2023, BBI reported positive comp growth industrywide, a trend it expects will return this year. In addition to positive momentum in comp sales, the company said comparable traffic growth so far in September is the strongest it’s seen since December. 

This sales and traffic momentum is likely to continue into the holidays, with 68% of consumers expected to celebrate the season in restaurants and bars, according to a Tock survey of over 1,000 diners. Sixty-five percent are “pretty or extremely enthusiastic for the holiday season,” Tock said.