Dive Brief:
- Rising gas prices related to the war in Iran aren’t likely to directly impact restaurant traffic or same-store sales, BTIG analyst Peter Saleh said in a report emailed to Restaurant Dive.
- While there may be “short-term consumer retrenchment” when gas prices reach $4 or $5 per gallon in certain markets, the data over the past two decades doesn’t show a strong connection between gas price spikes and falling restaurant traffic, Saleh said.
- Several chains posted negative same-store sales during the fourth quarter, including Wendy’s, Sweetgreen, Chipotle, Papa Johns and Pizza Hut, even though average weekly U.S. gas prices were at or below $3 during the quarter — and were generally lower than in 2022, 2023 or 2024.
Dive Insight:
Saleh pointed out that while gas prices declined in 2025, restaurant traffic reported by Black Box Intelligence was down during 11 out of 12 months last year.
“We would have expected the continued downward trend of gas prices to at least result in some positive (or improved) traffic trends in 2H25, but transaction counts actually got worse,” Saleh said. “In our view, gas prices are just one factor, but not a determining factor when assessing the health of the consumer and the willingness to dine out.”
To drive traffic across the industry, chains have been offering more value to bring back consumers who believe dining out has become too expensive. However, menu prices have continued to increase, according to the Consumer Price Index, food away from home prices were up 3.9% during the 12 months ending in February, higher than the 2.4% increase for food at home.
Revenue Management Solutions noted that while its data showed that average prices were up 1.5% across the fast food segment, brands have been more selective about increasing prices on core and premium items, and are investing in bundles, promotions and limited-time offers to boost value perception.
McDonald’s, Chili’s and Taco Bell continue to go heavy on value and are reaping the benefits of an increase in traffic and same-store sales. Even fast casual brands are emphasizing value, with Panera Bread debuting a Mix & Match value menu last month.
