It was clear in December that 2024 had been a hard year for many restaurant brands, which struggled from traffic declines, unit closures and outright bankruptcy. As chains reported their earnings for the last quarter of 2024 earlier this year, it became clear that those trends hadn’t changed. The environment may worsen as economic uncertainty — fueled by a waffling tariff policy, mass layoffs and government spending cuts of dubious legality — ramps up.
But even as trouble looms, a number of brands were able to win by exploiting consumer desire for strong value propositions, high-quality ingredients and experiential dining. The winners of this earnings season, generally, were brands that already did well. The losers too were no surprise, as turnarounds at chains like Applebee’s and Starbucks have yet to produce major shifts in consumer behavior.
Restaurant Dive identified three winning and three losing brands from publicly traded restaurant firms, based largely on same-store sales performance and the sense of momentum conveyed by earnings calls and analyst research notes.
Winners:
Texas Roadhouse
The steakhouse brand closed out a strong 2024 with 7.7% same-store sales growth at company restaurants and 6.3% at franchised locations in Q4, according to its earnings release. The brand also opened 14 restaurants in the quarter. Average weekly sales at company restaurants hit $153,867 — equivalent to an annualized $8 million sales volume in a 52-week year.
Looking forward, CEO Gerald Morgan said value would remain paramount for consumers in 2025, and the brand would take a measured approach to pricing, raising menu prices 1.4% in Q2 2025, according to an earnings call transcript.
As consumers seek alternatives to alcohol, Texas Roadhouse is adding several mocktails to its menu, Morgan said, and early results have been positive.
The chain is also continuing its tech deployments, Morgan said.
“We expect to complete the conversions of all locations to a digital kitchen by the end of the year,” Morgan told analysts.“These conversions are creating a more efficient kitchen and a less stressful environment for our Roadies.”
The chain will also continue upgrades to its guest management system used at the host stand, allowing employees to better predict wait times and improve seating.
Chili’s
Brinker’s fiscal Q2 2025 saw strong same-store sales growth for the casual dining chain: 31.4%, a staggering jump.
That increase was driven by the brand’s laser focus on value, as the brand marketed its Triple Dipper menu. But menu changes have played a role too. Brinker CEO Kevin Hochman said the chain has trimmed SKUs and raised the quality of a number of its ingredients.
“Fiscal year-to-date, we've been able to remove 13 menu items, 12 pantry SKUs and several prep sets, and we've reinvested time in doing fewer things a whole lot better,” Hochman said on the company’s earnings call. Other changes include guacamole made in-house, crispier bacon and chicken wings and higher-quality chicken breast.
But the brand isn’t resting on its laurels. Chili’s is working on a new prototype and will remodel about 200 targeted stores, some of which haven’t been updated since the 20th century.
Brinker CFO Mika Ware said the chain was “ramping up with the new prototype design, which will then lead us to our new reimage design,” and that atmosphere was a vital consideration. Chili’s emphasis on atmosphere, mentioned in the earnings call 11 times by Hochman and Ware, could signal the brand — like others in the restaurant industry — is looking to prioritize on-premise experience.
Cava
Cava has been growing rapidly since it went public in mid-2023, and that development continued in Q4 2024, with another quarter of double-digit same-store sales growth. The Mediterranean fast casual brand saw most of its sales increase come from rising traffic, a good sign for the brand, which saw its average unit volume rise from $2.6 million in late 2023 to $2.9 million in 2024, according to its most recent earnings call.
That strength is helping the brand enter new markets; just this week, Cava opened its first location in Indiana as part of its expansion into city markets throughout the Midwest.
Another winning factor has been the chain’s restrained approach to pricing. In January, Cava implemented 1.7% price increases on in-restaurant menus, and plans no further increases, CFO Tricia Tolivar said on its earnings call. In February 2025, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, food-away-from-home prices were 3.7% higher than in 2024.
Menu innovation helped Cava, too.
“Guest reception of grilled steak, which we introduced in the summer of 2024, exceeded our expectations, and incidence of this new main has remained strong,” CEO Brett Schulman said on the earnings call.
Losers:
Dine Brands
It is a truth universally acknowledged that a casual dining brand in possession of a shrinking store base must be in want of a turnaround plan.
Applebee’s has seen its same-store sales fall for seven quarters and its store base has eroded in recent years, down to 1,501 stores at the end of 2024 from 1,578 in 2021. Further losses are projected in 2025.
Dine has done what it can for the neighborhood bar and grill brand, with the Really Big Meal Deal driving some sales momentum, but not enough to overcome eroding spending by consumers making less than $75,000 a year. This demographic comprises two-thirds of Dine’s customer base, CEO John Peyton said on the company’s most recent earnings call. Because of this, Applebee’s has been unable to replicate the smashing success of Chili’s value plays, though Dine is set to launch a new value platform in the second half of 2025.
Then there’s the turnaround plan: Dine is launching a renovation drive at Applebee’s starting with 30 units the company acquired from a franchisee last year. Dual-branding with IHOP in new units could also help produce sales lifts for the chain.
IHOP, which outperformed Applebee’s for several quarters, has joined its sister brand in misery with four quarters of slipping comps and projected flat unit growth. In Q4, the chain had -2.8% same-store sales growth, its worst performance in years. Still, traffic improved over Q3 “primarily driven by the launch of our House Faves value menu,” Peyton said, accompanied by advertising that highlights the pricing and value of core breakfast items.
Starbucks
Six months in and Brian Niccol’s bold plan to remake Starbucks has yet to end its traffic problem. The brand saw an 8% traffic drop in North America during fiscal Q1 2025, offset by pricing action.
Yet the brand has made a number of changes Niccol said were vital: significant increases in advertising spend, in-store ceramic mugs, the return of the coffee condiment bar.
Starbucks also reduced the number of discounted orders by nearly 40% as it shifts away from a discounting strategy that may have hurt its brand positioning. The chain is working to cut roughly 30% of its menu, though significant customization may undercut the expected operational benefits of menu reduction.
More than 1,000 corporate Starbucks workers lost their jobs in February — 6.9% of its non-retail workforce — as corporate leadership moved to simplify structure.
The results of the coffee chain’s ad campaigns won’t be evident until the next round of earnings calls, but Starbucks has had a run of acute difficulty stretching back more than a year. With such a protracted slump, recovery will take time. It’s possible the changes Niccol has made will put Starbucks back in the winners category, but they didn’t this earnings season.
Pizza Hut and KFC
A notable absence from the winners are QSRs in general, and Yum Brands in particular. While Taco Bell turned in respectable same-store sales growth, the fast food conglomerate struggled in its home market.
KFC posted its fourth-consecutive quarter of same-store sales declines, with sales down 5% year over year. Despite efforts to turnaround sales at the brand, KFC has remained stagnant; Q4 was its sixth quarter without same-store sales growth in the U.S. KFC has been unable to find an effective value strategy, despite long running value meal promotions.
Yum is implementing a series of changes intended to strengthen the brand, promoting its chief marketing officer to president and shifting Scott Mezvinsky from Taco Bell’s presidency to KFC’s CEO post.
Pizza Hut likewise had trouble, with a 2% drop in same-store sales. But while chicken chains like Popeyes, Raising Cane’s and Chick-fil-A are challenging KFC, Pizza Hut’s brand competitors also saw disappointing sales, with Papa Johns’ sales down 4% and Domino’s same-store sales nearly flat.
Yum’s new tech platform could help turn things around, as could a new prototype at Pizza Hut.
